Bitcoin price analysis: BTC slowly retests $21,500, ready to return lower?

Bitcoin price analysis is bearish today as we have seen another slow retest of the previous high at $21,500. Since a break higher did not follow, we expect BTC/USD to reverse and look to retest the downside later in the weekend. However, if another higher low is set, a push above $21,500 should follow soon.

Bitcoin price analysis: BTC slowly retests $21,500, ready to return lower? 1
Cryptocurrency heat map. Source: Coin360

The market has traded in the red over the last 24 hours. The leader, Bitcoin, lost 0.48 percent, while Ethereum over 0.8 percent. The rest of the top altcoins followed closely, with only some posting small gains.

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Bitcoin price movement in the last 24 hours: Bitcoin fails to set further higher high

BTC/USD traded between $20,847.35 to $21,520.91, indicating mild volatility over the last 24 hours. Trading volume has declined by 19.23 percent, totaling $22.19 billion, while the total market cap trades around $404.19 billion, resulting in market dominance of 42.67 percent.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart: BTC looks to retest downside again?

On the 4-hour chart, we can see clear respect for the $21,500 resistance, likely leading to another push lower later in the weekend. However, as long as another local higher low is set, we expect more upside to follow next week.

Bitcoin price analysis: BTC slowly retests $21,500, ready to return lower?
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin price action has shown signs of reversal over the past few days. After the last substantial spike lower at the end of the last week, BTC/USD found the current low at $18,000.

From there, a strong recovery followed the $21,500 mark, setting another lower high. However, the recovery was slow, and the follow-up push lower did not reach beyond $20,000. Therefore, the first sign of reversal was set, indicating that we could see further upside next week.

BTC steadily rallied back from the $20,000 mark to the $21,500 previous high, indicating indecision in the market. Since further higher high could not be reached over the last 24 hours and local consolidation has formed, we expect another test of previous lows to follow later in the weekend.

If Bitcoin price action manages to set a higher low above $20,000, further upside should follow next week, with the next major target at the $23,000 mark as it previously served as a resistance level. Once this target is reached, the follow-up retrace and retest of the $21,500 mark as support would conform further medium-term trend reversal.

Alternatively, if the $20,000 mark fails to hold, we expect another wave lower early next week. BTC/USD will likely look to retest the $28,000 yearly low and reverse from there. If this level gets broken, the current several-week downtrend should continue in July.

Bitcoin price analysis: Conclusion 

Bitcoin price analysis is bearish today as we have seen another retest of the $21,500 previous high. Therefore, unless a clear break higher follows later today, we expect another local wave lower over the next 24 hours. If a higher local low is set, BTC/USD will likely look to break above the previous local high early next week as the overall market structure seems to be in a medium-term trend reversal phase.

While waiting for Bitcoin to move further, see our Price Prediction on UNUS SED LEO, BITO, and Klaytn.

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