BTC and select altcoins attempted a reversal, but are facing heavy selling at higher levels, which is proof that bears remain in control of the wider market.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to face a tough battle near the psychological level of $20,000 as the bulls and the bears attempt to assert their supremacy. Trading firm QCP Capital said in their latest market circular that funding rates on derivatives markets were stable and bearish conditions were fading.
Another ray of hope for the Bitcoin bulls is that Bitcoin miners may be capitulating as the recent decline in the price has made some mining machines unprofitable. Data from Arcane Research shows that public Bitcoin mining companies that had only sold 30% of their mined production from January to April of this year had dumped 100% of their Bitcoin production in May. Some analysts believe that miners giving up was a bullish signal.
However, one metric suggests that Bitcoin may not have bottomed out. Historically, Bitcoin signals a bottom when less than 50% of the Bitcoin addresses remain profitable. Glassnode data as of June 20 shows that 56.2% of Bitcoin addresses are in profit, increasing concerns of another down leg.
Could Bitcoin and the altcoins sustain the recovery or will bears pull the price lower? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
The bulls are attempting to start a recovery in Bitcoin but the long wick on the June 21 candlestick suggests that bears are not willing to surrender their advantage.
A minor positive is that the bulls are buying the dips to $20,000 on June 22. If the price rebounds off the current level, the buyers will try to drive the BTC/USDT pair above $22,000. That could open the doors for a possible rally to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA)($24,076).
This level is likely to act as a stiff resistance but if bulls overcome this barrier, the next stop could be the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($28,678).
This bullish view could be negated if the price turns down and breaks below $19,600. That could enhance the prospects of a retest of the June 18 intraday low of $17,622.
Ether’s (ETH) bounce off the June 18 intraday low of $881 turned down from $1,194 on June 21, suggesting that bears have not yet given up and they continue to sell on rallies.
If bulls don't not give up much ground from the current level, the ETH/USDT pair could again attempt a rally to the 20-day EMA ($1,368). This is an important level to keep an eye on because bears tend to defend the 20-day EMA during downtrends.
If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again try to pull the pair to $1,000 and then $881. A break below this level could signal the resumption of the downtrend. On the other hand, if bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to $1,700.
BNB has been sustaining above the crucial support of $211 since June 19 but the bulls are struggling to push the price higher. The long wick on the June 21 candlestick suggests that bears continue to sell on rallies.
If bears sink the price below $211, the BNB/USDT pair could decline to $200 and then to the June 18 intraday low of $183. This is an important level to watch out for because if the price dips below it, the pair could plummet to $150.
Conversely, if the price rebounds off $211 or $200, it will suggest that bulls continue to buy on dips. The bulls will then make one more attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, it will suggest that the break below $211 may have been a bear trap.
Cardano’s (ADA) bounce from the $0.44 to $0.40 support zone fizzled out near the 20-day EMA ($0.51) on June 21. This suggests that the bears continue to defend the level aggressively.
The sellers will now attempt to sink the price below the support zone. If they manage to do that, it will suggest the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The ADA/USDT pair could then slip to $0.33 and later to $0.30.
Alternatively, if the price again rebounds off the support zone, it will suggest that bulls continue to accumulate on dips. The buyers will then make one more attempt to push the pair above the moving averages and start a rally to $0.70.
Ripple (XRP) has been range-bound between $0.28 and $0.35 for the past few days. This suggests a state of equilibrium between the bulls and the bears.
The longer the time spent inside the range, the stronger will be the breakout from it. If the price continues lower and breaks below the support of the range at $0.28, it could suggest the resumption of the downtrend.
The RSI is showing a positive divergence, indicating that the bearish momentum may be weakening. If bulls push the price above $0.35, it will suggest the start of a new up-move. The XRP/USDT pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.41) and later rally to $0.45.
Solana’s (SOL) recovery on June 21 rose above the 20-day EMA ($36) but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows that bears are selling at higher levels.
The price remains below the 20-day EMA on June 22 but the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that the buyers expect a break above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($47) where the bears may again mount a strong defense.
Conversely, if the price fails to rise above the 20-day EMA, it could attract profit-booking from short-term traders. That may pull the pair to $30 and later to $27.
Dogecoin (DOGE) started a recovery on June 19 and reached the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on June 21. Although bulls pushed the price above the 20-day EMA, they could not sustain the higher levels.
That may have attracted profit-booking from the short-term bulls and selling by the aggressive bears. The sellers will now attempt to sink the DOGE/USDT pair below $0.06 and challenge the vital support at $0.05.
Alternatively, if the price rebounds off $0.06, it will suggest that the sentiment has changed from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That could increase the possibility of a break above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair may rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.08).
Polkadot (DOT) turned down from th 20-day EMA ($8.20) on June 21, suggesting that bears continue to defend the level aggressively. The sellers will now try to pull the price below the immediate support at $7.30.
If they succeed, the DOT/USDT pair could drop to the crucial support at $6.36. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break below it could start the next leg of the downtrend to $4.23.
On the contrary, if the price rebounds off $7.30, it will suggest that bulls are trying to form a higher low. That could enhance the prospects of a break above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($9.78). If this level is also crossed, the next stop could be $12.44.
The bulls pushed UNUS SED LEO (LEO) above the resistance line of the descending channel on June 22 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests that bears are selling at higher levels.
The 20-day EMA ($5.29) has started to turn up and the RSI is near the overbought territory, indicating that bulls have the upper hand. If the price sustains above the channel, it could open the doors for a possible up-move to $6.50.
Conversely, if the price fails to sustain above the channel, traders may book profits and that could pull the LEO/USD pair to the 20-day EMA. Such a move will suggest that the pair may remain stuck inside the channel for a few more days.
The failure to sink Shiba Inu (SHIB) below $0.000007 may have tempted short sellers to book profits and aggressive bulls to start buying. That may have resulted in the sharp rally on June 21.
Traders pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.000010) but could not clear the hurdle at the 50-day SMA ($0.000012). This suggests that bears are defending the level aggressively.
The sellers are attempting to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, it will suggest that the recent recovery may have been a bear market rally. The SHIB/USDT pair could then drop toward $0.000007.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is near the midpoint suggesting a range-bound action in the near term. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 50-day SMA to signal a potential trend change.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.